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Can Romney Win In The South?

Romney is doing better in Alabama and Mississippi than much of the news coverage in the last few days would suggest according to new polls out today.

With Super Tuesday now in the rear view mirror and the Republican race still plodding along, the next battle ground will be in the states of Kansas on Saturday and two southern states (Alabama and Mississippi) on Tuesday.  Unless I missed it, I do not believe there have been any public polls for Saturday's caucus in Kansas and most news reports seem to indicate Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are ceding that race to Rick Santorum.  Meanwhile, while much of the news coverage I have been watching seems to suggest Romney could struggle in the south, two new polls today from Scott Rasmussen show Romney to be much stronger than even I would have thought.

PRESIDENT – MISSISSIPPI – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney 35%
Newt Gingrich 27%
Rick Santorum 27%
Ron Paul 6%

PRESIDENT – ALABAMA – GOP PRIMARY (Rasmussen)
Newt Gingrich 30%
Rick Santorum 29%
Mitt Romney 28%
Ron Paul 7%

Meanwhile, American Research Group also gave us a new poll for Mississippi that actually puts Gingrich in the lead and has Santorum much further back.

PRESIDENT – MISSISSIPPI – GOP PRIMARY (ARG)
Newt Gingrich 35%
Mitt Romney 31%
Rick Santorum 20%
Ron Paul 7%

If Romney does not win either state, the second-best news he could hope for would be for either Gingrich to win both or for a split between Gingrich and Santorum.  I think if Romney can win even one state out of these two, this would be a huge boost for Romney.

The Rasmussen Mississippi poll was done among 750 likely primary voters on March 8th with a margin of error of +/-4%.  Find the details of this poll here.

The American Research Group Mississippi was done among 600 likely primary voters on March 7-8th with a margin of error of +/-4%.  Find the details of this poll here.

The Alabama poll was done among 750 likely primary voters on March 8th with a margin of error of +/-4%.  Find the details of this poll here.

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